Articles

Trump’s US$50 billion China farm deal ‘not possible’ after trade war market shift

by editor on 2019-11-15 16:44:32 | 0 comments

US President Donald Trump’s insistence that China buy US$50 billion worth of American agricultural goods may help drum up electoral support across the Farm Belt, but is “not really possible” in practice, industry insiders have said. The figure has been repeatedly cited by Trump and his supporters as a condition of a  trade deal  that would see China get some tariff relief, with Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley even tweeting overnight that China best not renege on a “promise made in Oval Office to buy $50-60B of ag products”...

Australia's jobless rate ticks up slightly

by editor on 2019-11-14 06:25:16 | 0 comments

SYDNEY--Australia's unemployment rate rose slightly to a seasonally adjusted 5.3% in October from 5.2% in September, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Thursday. The jobless rate was in line with economists' forecasts, although the number of people employed fell by 19,000, compared with an expected 17,000 rise. Labor-market performance is a key marker for the Reserve Bank of Australia, with the central bank watching any fluctuations in labor market growth and wage changes ahead of its last policy meeting of the year, economists say...

Daily U.S. Session Watchlist: USD/JPY

by editor on 2019-11-12 17:25:08 | 0 comments

The likely top FX market moving event is the upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy decision, but for today’s watchlist, we’re looking at the Greenback as U.S. President Trump’s speech on trade in just a couple of hours could have a big impact on all financial markets. Of course, we won’t know what he’ll say or the market’s reach may be, which makes USD/JPY kind of the perfect pair to play any potential pop in volatility given its technical setup...

Juncker doesn't believe Trump will impose Europe auto tariffs: report

by editor on 2019-11-08 16:42:56 | 0 comments

Outgoing European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said he doesn't believe President Donald Trump will levy tariffs on imported European cars next week, according to an interview with German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung. "Trump is going to make some criticism, but there won't be any auto tariffs," Juncker told the newspaper, according to Reuters. "He won't do it. ... You are speaking to a fully informed man." The U.S. has until November 14 to decide whether it will impose tariffs of up to 25% on autos and parts out of Europe...

Gold recoups some of its recent losses, but holds below $1,500

by editor on 2019-11-07 06:12:52 | 0 comments

Gold futures settled higher Wednesday, a day after the precious metal lost its grip on the psychologically significant $1,500 mark amid gains in stocks, yields and a firmer U.S. dollar — all headwinds for the commodity. On Wednesday, some of those factors moderated somewhat, with bond yields sharply lower and the dollar a bit weaker. Gold prices fell Tuesday “as cascading sell stops from overbought conditions triggered lows to below $1485,” said George Gero, managing director at RBC Wealth Management...

Gold ends at 3-week low as hopes for a trade deal support stocks, bond yields and the dollar

by editor on 2019-11-05 20:01:57 | 0 comments

Gold futures fell on Tuesday, as a climb in U.S. stocks, bond yields and the dollar on hopes for a U.S.-China trade deal, along with a stronger-than-expected ISM services reading, sent prices for the precious metal to their lowest finish in three weeks. In economic news, the ISM U.S. service sector activity index rose to 54.7% in October, up from 52.6% in September with the upbeat economic news dulling haven demand for gold, prompting prices to touch fresh session lows shortly after the data were released...

U.S. October jobs report is likely to be a big dud, but not because the labor market is tanking

by editor on 2019-11-01 11:06:55 | 0 comments

A big dud. That’s what Wall Street suspects when the government tells us how many new American jobs were created in October. Not just because hiring in the U.S. has slowed, although it has. A six-week strike at General Motors might play an even bigger role. Here’s what to watch in the employment report due Friday morning. A striking number Economists polled by MarketWatch predict the U.S. added a meager 75,000 new jobs last month, down from a lackluster 136,000 in September. If they’re right, it would be the third reading below 100,000 this year...

Oil prices end at 1-week low as EIA reports nearly 6 million-barrel weekly rise in U.S. supplies

by editor on 2019-10-30 19:43:37 | 0 comments

  Oil futures ended Wednesday at their lowest in just over a week after the Energy Information Administration reported a larger-than-expected weekly U.S. crude-supply increase of almost 6 million barrels, but gasoline inventories declined a bit more than forecast. The EIA crude supply build “exceeded expectations even with refinery runs higher, but imports recovered notably,” said Marshall Steeves, energy markets analyst at IHS Markit. “The draws in distillates and gasoline were unsurprising,” as gasoline demand has been unseasonably high...

Another rate cut, and then what? The Fed isn’t making any promises

by editor on 2019-10-29 13:01:56 | 0 comments

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday by 25 basis points to a range of 1.5%-1.75%, the third such cut in three months. The fed funds futures market puts the probability at 94%. That same financial futures market is attaching low odds (28%) to another cut in December, which seems to be the message —three and done, at least for now — conveyed by Fed officials, starting at the top with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. But that message is not uniform nor without inconsistencies...

New FxRebate partner broker: Eurotrader!

by editor on 2019-10-26 12:02:36 | 0 comments

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Inflation forecasts fall in ECB survey of forecasters for fourth straight time

by editor on 2019-10-25 13:23:51 | 0 comments

Inflation forecasts fell in the fourth quarter in the European Central Bank's survey of professional forecasters, the fourth successive fall of 0.1 percentage points. The forecasters expect annual inflation to average 1.2% in 2019 and in 2020, and 1.4% in 2021. The ECB targets inflation just below 2%. The forecasters also lowered their expectations of GDP growth, seeing 1.1% growth in 2019, 1% growth in 2020 and 1.4% growth in 2021. ...

Deutsche Bank argues the U.S. dollar has peaked and the euro has bottomed out

by editor on 2019-10-22 18:32:03 | 0 comments

Here’s some news that probably will cheer up one of its clients, President Donald Trump — Deutsche Bank believes the U.S. dollar has peaked. In a monthly note on its cross-asset strategy, Deutsche Bank’s argument against the dollar is more about an argument for the other side of the trade, the euro. The bank says European interest rates are already near the effective lower bound, leaving little room for more cuts. Plus, the manufacturing data between Europe and other markets are at extremes, where they tend to rebound...

Things aren’t looking great for China’s economy and it may only be getting worse

by editor on 2019-10-21 18:40:28 | 0 comments

If you thought China’s 6% growth rate for this year’s third quarter — which indicates that the country is growing at its slowest pace in nearly 30 years — was bad, brace for worse. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the Chinese gross domestic product will grow at a rate of 5.8% in 2020, according to its World Economic Outlook published over the weekend. Six months ago, the IMF had forecast a growth rate of 6.1%.  The downward revision was triggered by “the effects of escalating tariffs and weakening external demand,” which have “exacerbated the slowdown associated with needed regulatory strengthening to rein in the accumulation of debt,” the report states...

Why the bull market won’t end with a typical crash, says hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio

by editor on 2019-10-18 17:22:36 | 0 comments

The U.S. and China may be nearing a tentative, partial trade agreement but the IMF’s new leader has warned the trade truce won’t be enough to boost global growth. Another ongoing dispute may also be nearing a resolution, with the U.K. and EU agreeing a Brexit deal, though British MPs still have to approve it. But the U.S. has confirmed tariffs on $7.5 billion worth of European goods will take effect on Friday, proving that geopolitical tensions are here to stay. Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio, in our call of the day, says the global economy is in a “great sag” and the world has parallels to the 1930s...

Gold ends at highest price in a week as investors weigh tentative Brexit pact

by editor on 2019-10-17 20:15:44 | 0 comments

Gold prices edged higher on Thursday after the European Union and U.K. reached a preliminary Brexit deal, with worries that a deal may not pass a weekend vote in the British parliament and signs of a weakness in the U.S. economy providing support for the haven metal. “Gold’s gains after an initial small sell off suggest that many market participants remain skeptical of this latest Brexit ‘deal’,” and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s ability to get both the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland and the UK parliament to agree to the deal,” said Mark O’Byrne, research director at GoldCore in Dublin, told MarketWatch...

Why a strong dollar could be a warning sign in this market

by editor on 2019-10-16 07:55:21 | 0 comments

With so many conflicting signals about markets, the economy in the U.S. and abroad, the impact of the China-U.S. trade war, and more, what’s an investor to think? Through all the noise, there’s one measure that bears watching. Even investors who don’t trade currencies should pay attention to the strength of the U.S. dollar, according to a note out Monday. That’s because while the strong dollar has a lot of effects, its cause, at least right now, is that investors around the world are skittish...

New FxRebate partner broker: CrescoFX!

by editor on 2019-10-14 14:08:23 | 0 comments

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Brexit hopes sends British pound to highest level of Johnson administration as U.K. banks soar

by editor on 2019-10-11 19:38:35 | 0 comments

Growing hopes that U.K. and European leaders can reach an agreed deal for Britain to leave the European Union pushed the British pound higher for a second day on Friday. The pound GBPUSD, +1.7277%  rose as high as $1.2706, up from $1.2444 on Thursday, a day when the U.K. currency had its best single day percentage advance since March. Taken together, it’s the best two days of gains in over a decade. It’s the strongest sterling has been since Theresa May was prime minister...

Fed grew more worried about economy at September meeting, minutes show

by editor on 2019-10-09 19:01:42 | 0 comments

  Federal Reserve officials were more worried about the U.S. economy by the time they met in mid-September, according to minutes of the central bank’s meeting released Wednesday. “Participants generally judged that downside risks to the outlook for economic activity had increased somewhat since their July meeting, particularly those stemming from trade policy uncertainty and conditions abroad,” the minutes said. There was even talk about possible recession, with several Fed officials noting that the probability of a recession “had increased notably in recent months...

Here’s why European leaders may let an economic slowdown morph into a serious crisis

by editor on 2019-10-08 19:07:15 | 0 comments

The eurozone economy keeps slowing — forecasts are regularly proving to be too optimistic. After its latest cut to GDP estimates, the European Central Bank now sees gross domestic product growing 1.1% this year and 1.2% in 2020, compared with projections issued in June for 1.2% GDP in 2019 and 1.4% in the following year. Europe faces a double whammy of uncertainties both foreign — slowing world trade brought about by U.S. tariffs coupled with the threat of further escalation — and domestic, the increasing possibility of a no-deal Brexit...

New FxRebate partner broker: Infinox Capital!

by editor on 2019-10-07 21:14:18 | 0 comments

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THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SITUATION - SEPTEMBER 2019

by editor on 2019-10-04 13:33:08 | 0 comments

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION - SEPTEMBER 2019 The unemployment rate declined to 3.5 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 136,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in health care and in professional and business services continued to trend up. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry...

Aussie Bears at Risk as Reserve Bank Has Reason to Dial Back Dovishness

by editor on 2019-10-01 16:53:17 | 0 comments

Investors betting on fresh losses in the Australian dollar are at risk of having their trades backfire this week. While the majority of economists predict the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates to a new record low on Tuesday, there are a number of factors that suggest policy makers may spur an Aussie rally by either deciding to stay on hold or delivering a hawkish cut by restraining expectations for any further easing. The central bank’s Aussie trade weighted index has fallen for an unprecedented fifth quarter, signaling the currency is delivering an extra dose of accommodation by helping underpin exports...

New FxRebate partner broker: UGL Exchange!

by editor on 2019-09-27 10:27:52 | 0 comments

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New FxRebate partner broker: Vantage FX!

by editor on 2019-03-29 19:44:26 | 0 comments

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Yen Rising As Safe Haven Demand Increases

by RoboForex on 2018-04-03 15:20:33 | 0 comments

The Japanese yen confirmed its safe haven status again. The previous correction was quite technical, as the market was trying to balance the USD/JPY pair without any significant fundamentals published. Now, the economic events are flowing into the market again, and the news are very much negative, which, as a rule, does influence the Japanese currency.  First and foremost, the markets are very wary about the 'trader war' between the US and China, which can start any time. The US government imposed some customs duties unilaterally against steel and aluminum a few weeks ago...

Gold Rallying Steadily

by RoboForex on 2018-01-15 15:54:53 | 0 comments

Gold has been growing up steadily this year. By mid January, the yellow metal is at $1344.30, adding 0.7% to its price. Gold started growing in mid December and is moving ahead quite firmly in the lights of the weakening US dollar. The market does not believe in the greenback and does not pay any attention to the fundamentals. On Friday, the US inflation report came up mixed, with the CPI growth by just 0.1% MoM, as expected. Base inflation did much better, with 0.03% growth MoM, the expectations being at 0...

The Oil Calmed Down After Forties Pipeline System Failure

by RoboForex on 2017-12-19 08:40:36 | 0 comments

Last week, the commodity market was very sensitive to the news about the Forties pipeline system breakdown and the fact that the pipeline had to be closed for maintenance. Brent reached the local high at 65.83 USD per barrel. However, after a couple of days this “bullish frenzy” died down and investors started analyzing the situation. It became quite clear why Brent was rising so fast, WTI was behind, and what was the reason of all this. The Forties pipeline is very important for the United Kingdom and the oil extraction in the North Sea in general...

New FxRebate partner broker: Destek Markets!

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New FxRebate partner broker: Deltastock!

by editor on 2017-12-13 08:41:09 | 0 comments

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Oil Will Be Led By Politics

by RoboForex on 2017-12-04 15:12:18 | 0 comments

The OPEC’s November decision on the extension of the agreement, which establishes strict borders and limits for the oil extracting countries, was quite logical. The agreement has been extended at least until the end of 2018. So, the main question for the nearest future is how the OPEC is going to terminate the agreement if the organization has no plan B. On the first Monday of December, oil prices are trying to start a correction. Brent costs $63.41 (-0.5%); WTI lost 0.7% and right now is $57...

New FxRebate partner broker: MEX Group!

by editor on 2017-11-24 19:54:07 | 0 comments

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Rumors make the Oil go up

by editor on 2017-11-21 19:12:41 | 0 comments

The oil market has another reason to recover. At the beginning of last week, they were selling oil because there were rumors that Russia had no interest to extend the OPEC+ agreement, but at the end of it the price movement direction changed to the opposite. Saudi Arabia announced that Russia would support the OPEC+ agreement extension after March 2018. The closer November 30th is, when the OPEC is going to have a meeting in Vienna, the more doubts investors have about future announcements and actions...

The US Dollar Doesn’t Like Talks About The Rate

by editor on 2017-11-15 15:23:07 | 0 comments

Despite being pretty clear and logical, talks about the benchmark key rate increase in the USA in December are “haunting” some monetary politicians and investors. These doubts, which were mentioned in Patrick Harker’s comments below, put pressure upon the “sensitive” USD. Not long time ago, the FOMC member Patrick Harker said that one should be very careful when estimating the USA inflation and the Federal Reserve had to be ready for any stresses and shocks in the economy...

The USD is keeping balance

by editor on 2017-11-07 19:37:49 | 0 comments

In October, the Non-Farm Payrolls added 252K, although it was expected to expand by 313K. However, the September report was revised upwards (+15K) and sort of wore off the first impression of the statistics. The Average Hourly Earnings didn’t change; on YoY, it’s still 2.4%. This report also got investors’ attention: the predicted reading was 2.7% y/y. There was a similar situation this year, when the capital market focused on this very parameter and prevented the USD from being supported by other reports, which were pretty good...

The Oil is Updating Its Highs and Getting Ready for a New Attack

by editor on 2017-10-31 13:14:41 | 0 comments

The oil is still getting more expensive. Last Friday, the Brent futures contract price for December broke $60 per barrel and continues rising at the beginning of this week. The “bulls” clearly had enough time to “rest” during the weekend and right now are ready for new highs. The oil hasn’t been so expensive for more than two years – the current levels were last reached in July 2015. In early November, market conditions remain in favor of the oil buyers. It means that there might be more records in the future...

The Japanese Yen is planning to weaken

by editor on 2017-10-23 19:12:25 | 0 comments

"Abenomics” will continue. The Liberal Democratic Party led by the current Japanese Prime Minster, Shinzō Abe, secured a victory during the elections that took place last weekend. However, such results were expected: frankly speaking, the Opposition has nothing to offer instead of the current fiscal and monetary policy. Hardly anybody is ready to take responsibility for the weak inflation and the gradual increase of the national debt, but Abe, for example, is staying in power and continues being responsible for country’s financial and economic system together with the Bank of Japan...

The US Dollar is Vulnerable, But It’s Temporarily

by editor on 2017-10-17 15:11:37 | 0 comments

The US Dollar can’t manage to continue growing, and the more attempts to rise it makes, the more doubts appear that it can really rise during this particular period of market fluctuations. The EUR/USD has clearly set a course for 1.20 and may resume falling only after reaching this level. The statistics is against the USD so far. The numbers published last week, which were followed with insight, turned out to be weaker than expected and investors lost their interest (that was already very low) to the American currency...

New FxRebate partner broker: CMC Markets!

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