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Fed says it will do everything it can to support economy facing public-health crisis

by editor on 2020-04-29 19:35:23 | 0 comments

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday committed itself to use its full range of tools to help the U.S. economy which is facing considerable risks from the coronavirus pandemic. “The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term,” the Fed said in a statement after two-day meeting. Click here:Follow live blog of Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference The Fed kept its benchmark interest rate in a range from 0 to 0...

Brace for the ‘deepest recession on record,’ says BofA analysts, as jobless claims surge to 6.6 million

by editor on 2020-04-02 18:17:07 | 0 comments

There are no parallels for the pandemic fueled slowdown that the U.S. economy is currently contending with, and that is forcing economists like those of Bank of America Global Research to forecast a decidedly grimmer outlook for the American economy than they offered just two weeks ago. The BofA researchers on Thursday said the coming recession “appears to be deeper and more prolonged than we were led to believe just 14 days ago when we last updated our forecasts, not just in the US but globally as well...

U.S. businesses need a $2 trillion bailout fund to avoid a possible ‘global depression,’ says Guggenheim’s Minerd

by editor on 2020-03-18 04:39:25 | 0 comments

The economic pain caused by the continuing coronavirus epidemic could be even worse than the Great Financial Crisis. That’s according to Scott Minerd, global chief investment officer at Guggenheim Investments, who estimated in a Tuesday research note that the Chinese economy is contracting at a 15% annual rate, while the European economy “is probably in a fairly severe recession.” “If the United States is not already in a recession, it will enter one shortly,” Minerd wrote...

Fed cuts interest rates by half percentage point in rare inter-meeting move

by editor on 2020-03-03 18:03:32 | 0 comments

The Federal Reserve, in a rare inter-meeting move, on Tuesday cut its benchmark interest rate to counter the threat to the economy from the coronavirus epidemic. In a statement, the Fed said it cut its fed funds target rate by a half percentage point to a range of 1%-1.25%. “The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong. However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity,” the statement said. At a press conference later, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said officials saw the virus spreading and this represented a material change in the outlook for economic growth...

Fed Officials Saw Policy Appropriate 'For A Time' Amid Risks

by editor on 2020-02-25 08:56:32 | 0 comments

Federal Reserve officials viewed their current monetary policy as appropriate "for a time" while they remained on guard against domestic and global risks that could slow the longest U.S. expansion on record, according to Fed minutes released Wednesday in Washington. The Fed minutes showed a broad discussion as officials considered inflation ranges as a tool to achieve their 2% target, how to adapt policy to combat financial-stability risks, and how they would wind down ongoing repurchase agreement and Treasury-bill purchases...

Experts doubt Fed has all the tools it needs to fight recession

by editor on 2020-01-06 12:54:28 | 0 comments

SAN DIEGO — Two monetary-policy experts, contradicting former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, said they wanted the central bank to consider new “radical” approaches to fight the next recession, out of a concern that existing tools might not be as effective as they were in the last crisis. In a Sunday morning panel at the American Economic Association annual meeting, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said the Fed’s QE program, in which the central bank would buy government bonds to bring down long-term rates, might not pack so much punch because the 10-year Treasury note is already close to 1%...

Investors think the Fed is doing QE again. That's giving markets an artificial boost

by editor on 2019-12-20 12:04:56 | 0 comments

New York (CNN Business)The Federal Reserve has taken great pains to stress that its rescue of the overnight lending market is not a stealth version of quantitative easing. Wall Street isn't buying it, though. The September spike in overnight lending rates forced the Fed to take dramatic action to relieve the stress. The US central bank began aggressively pumping in billions of dollars a day and purchasing $60 billion of Treasury bills per month. Euphoria sweeps across Wall Street...

Read the FOMC’s December statement

by editor on 2019-12-11 20:21:31 | 0 comments

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although household spending has been rising at a strong pace, business fixed investment and exports remain weak. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent...

U.S. jobless claims tumble again to 203,000 and return to near a 50-year low

by editor on 2019-12-05 18:32:14 | 0 comments

The numbers: The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits at the end of November fell to the lowest level in seven months and returned close to a 50-year low, but the sharp decline in jobless claims likely stems in part from the Thanksgiving holiday. Initial jobless claims, a rough way to measure layoffs, dropped 10,000 to 203,000 in the seven days ended Nov. 30, the government said Thursday.       That’s the lowest level since mid-April, when new claims fell to a 50-year low of 193,000, and a sign that the U...

U.S. GDP growth in third quarter raised to 2.1% from 1.9%

by editor on 2019-11-27 17:48:29 | 0 comments

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy grew at a 2.1% annual pace in the third quarter, a few ticks higher than previously estimated. Gross domestic product was originally estimated to have grown 1.9%. The improved figure stemmed mostly from upward revisions in inventories and investment in structures, the government said. The increase in consumer spending, the main engine of growth, was left at 2.9%. Business fixed investment was revised to show a 1% drop instead of 1.3%. The change in the value of inventories or unsold goods was raised to $79...

Juncker doesn't believe Trump will impose Europe auto tariffs: report

by editor on 2019-11-08 16:42:56 | 0 comments

Outgoing European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said he doesn't believe President Donald Trump will levy tariffs on imported European cars next week, according to an interview with German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung. "Trump is going to make some criticism, but there won't be any auto tariffs," Juncker told the newspaper, according to Reuters. "He won't do it. ... You are speaking to a fully informed man." The U.S. has until November 14 to decide whether it will impose tariffs of up to 25% on autos and parts out of Europe...

U.S. October jobs report is likely to be a big dud, but not because the labor market is tanking

by editor on 2019-11-01 11:06:55 | 0 comments

A big dud. That’s what Wall Street suspects when the government tells us how many new American jobs were created in October. Not just because hiring in the U.S. has slowed, although it has. A six-week strike at General Motors might play an even bigger role. Here’s what to watch in the employment report due Friday morning. A striking number Economists polled by MarketWatch predict the U.S. added a meager 75,000 new jobs last month, down from a lackluster 136,000 in September. If they’re right, it would be the third reading below 100,000 this year...

Another rate cut, and then what? The Fed isn’t making any promises

by editor on 2019-10-29 13:01:56 | 0 comments

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday by 25 basis points to a range of 1.5%-1.75%, the third such cut in three months. The fed funds futures market puts the probability at 94%. That same financial futures market is attaching low odds (28%) to another cut in December, which seems to be the message —three and done, at least for now — conveyed by Fed officials, starting at the top with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. But that message is not uniform nor without inconsistencies...

Inflation forecasts fall in ECB survey of forecasters for fourth straight time

by editor on 2019-10-25 13:23:51 | 0 comments

Inflation forecasts fell in the fourth quarter in the European Central Bank's survey of professional forecasters, the fourth successive fall of 0.1 percentage points. The forecasters expect annual inflation to average 1.2% in 2019 and in 2020, and 1.4% in 2021. The ECB targets inflation just below 2%. The forecasters also lowered their expectations of GDP growth, seeing 1.1% growth in 2019, 1% growth in 2020 and 1.4% growth in 2021. ...

Deutsche Bank argues the U.S. dollar has peaked and the euro has bottomed out

by editor on 2019-10-22 18:32:03 | 0 comments

Here’s some news that probably will cheer up one of its clients, President Donald Trump — Deutsche Bank believes the U.S. dollar has peaked. In a monthly note on its cross-asset strategy, Deutsche Bank’s argument against the dollar is more about an argument for the other side of the trade, the euro. The bank says European interest rates are already near the effective lower bound, leaving little room for more cuts. Plus, the manufacturing data between Europe and other markets are at extremes, where they tend to rebound...

Why a strong dollar could be a warning sign in this market

by editor on 2019-10-16 07:55:21 | 0 comments

With so many conflicting signals about markets, the economy in the U.S. and abroad, the impact of the China-U.S. trade war, and more, what’s an investor to think? Through all the noise, there’s one measure that bears watching. Even investors who don’t trade currencies should pay attention to the strength of the U.S. dollar, according to a note out Monday. That’s because while the strong dollar has a lot of effects, its cause, at least right now, is that investors around the world are skittish...

Fed grew more worried about economy at September meeting, minutes show

by editor on 2019-10-09 19:01:42 | 0 comments

  Federal Reserve officials were more worried about the U.S. economy by the time they met in mid-September, according to minutes of the central bank’s meeting released Wednesday. “Participants generally judged that downside risks to the outlook for economic activity had increased somewhat since their July meeting, particularly those stemming from trade policy uncertainty and conditions abroad,” the minutes said. There was even talk about possible recession, with several Fed officials noting that the probability of a recession “had increased notably in recent months...

Here’s why European leaders may let an economic slowdown morph into a serious crisis

by editor on 2019-10-08 19:07:15 | 0 comments

The eurozone economy keeps slowing — forecasts are regularly proving to be too optimistic. After its latest cut to GDP estimates, the European Central Bank now sees gross domestic product growing 1.1% this year and 1.2% in 2020, compared with projections issued in June for 1.2% GDP in 2019 and 1.4% in the following year. Europe faces a double whammy of uncertainties both foreign — slowing world trade brought about by U.S. tariffs coupled with the threat of further escalation — and domestic, the increasing possibility of a no-deal Brexit...

THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SITUATION - SEPTEMBER 2019

by editor on 2019-10-04 13:33:08 | 0 comments

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION - SEPTEMBER 2019 The unemployment rate declined to 3.5 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 136,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in health care and in professional and business services continued to trend up. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry...

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